Rainfall in August to October (ASO) is likely to be near normal in Trinidad and Tobago, while some areas in the
northwest of Trinidad may experience below normal.
In Trinidad, the percentage of average rainfall is likely to range between 86 % and 117 % of the long term average
(LTA). While in Tobago, the percentage of average rainfall is likely to range between 88 % and 96 % of the long term
Details of the Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for August to October 2015 (ASO)
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) Climate Early Warning (CEW) outlook for the period ASO 2015
favours near average rainfall across the country. Rainfall performance is likely to be strongest in northeast Trinidad and
weakest in southwest Trinidad. Rainfall performance in northeast Tobago is expected to strongest, while in southwest it is
likely to be weaker.
The ASO rainfall outlook shows the highest and most frequent odds favour near average rainfall totals (near average rainfall
is 75 % to 125 % of the long term average-LTA) to occur over the country, see figure 1. Although the forecast is for near
average, some areas in the north-western and south-western parts of Trinidad and south-western parts of Tobago may
experience below normal during the period (below average is less than 75% of the long term average-LTA).
In districts where near average rainfall totals are likely to occur, the percentage of average rainfall is expected to range
between 86% and 117% of the LTA in Trinidad and between 88% and 96% in Tobago (figure 1).
On a monthly scale, rainfall in the month of August and October is expected to be near average in the country, while in
September it is expected to be below average.
Total rainfall amounts for ASO are likely to range from as low as 419 mm in north-western Trinidad to 968 mm in some
districts in north-eastern Trinidad, while total rainfall amounts in Tobago during the period are likely to range from 450 mm
in south-western areas to 750 mm in north eastern areas (figure 2).
Hotter than average normal day and night temperatures are expected for all of the country during August to October 2015.
Maximum temperatures are expected to average near 32.2⁰ C and range between 31.2 ⁰ C and 33.2⁰ C over the period.
Minimum temperatures are expected to average near 24.7 ⁰ C and range between 24.1 ⁰ C and 25.2 ⁰ C in most areas.
Preliminary Outlook September to November 2015:
Likely impacts of near average rainfall and warmer than average temperatures include:
Greening of pastures and some trees.
Slight increase in ground water recharge.
Slight increase in surface water flow and water availability.
Increased risk of vector borne illnesses.
Increased risk of pest and diseases.
Slight reduction in the duration and occurrence of consecutive very hot days.
How Should You Respond?
- The public is advised to conserve, store and manage water in a sustainable manner.
- Farming communities are encouraged to use methods that would reduce the impact of pest and diseases.
- Relevant agencies and ministries are advised to take measures to mitigate the potential impacts from near average and
warmer than average temperatures.